Renowned Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas has reduced the likelihood of the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) rejecting the launch of the Bitcoin spot ETF to a mere 5%. This updated prediction comes as crypto enthusiasts globally await the SEC’s broad approval of several Bitcoin spot ETF proposals on Wednesday, January 10.
In October, Eric Balchunas and his Bloomberg colleague James Seyffart estimated a 90% chance that ARK Invest and 21 shares would get approval for their joint Bitcoin spot ETF bid on January 10, the final deadline for the SEC’s response to their application. However, in a recent post on January 6, Balchunas increased the probability of approval to an impressive 95%, stating that there was only a 5% chance the SEC would reject the ARK/21 ETF bid in the upcoming days.
This revised forecast is based on the unlikelihood of all scenarios that could potentially delay or prevent the approval of the ARK/ 21 shares Bitcoin spot ETF application. In a previous post on January 6, James Seyffart outlined these scenarios, starting with ARK/21 shares unexpectedly withdrawing their ETF proposal from the SEC, which he deemed highly improbable. Another scenario is the SEC finding new reasons to reject the launch of a crypto spot ETF, leading to a protracted court battle between the US regulator and ARK/21Shares. Seyffart believes the SEC would prefer to avoid such a situation, particularly after its recent high-profile legal defeat against Grayscale investment.
The last event that could hinder the approval of the ARK/21 Shares ETF bid, according to the Bloomberg analyst, is a direct intervention from the US Presidency, a scenario that seems highly unlikely.
The significance of ARK/21 Shares’ joint bid in the Bitcoin spot ETF saga is its final deadline for an SEC response, which is the earliest among all. It is now thought that the SEC will approve several Bitcoin spot ETF applications simultaneously, regardless of their respective final deadline dates, similar to its approach with Ether-futures ETFs in August. This assumption is supported by recent discussions between the US regulator and various applicants, leading to amendments in their proposals, suggesting an impending approval.
As of now, the anticipated date remains January 10, with crypto enthusiasts eagerly awaiting the potential positive impact of a spot ETF on Bitcoin’s price throughout the year. Meanwhile, Bitcoin is currently trading at $44,050, marking a 4.50% increase over the past week.
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| Information | Details |
|---|---|
| Geography | North America |
| Countries | 🇺🇸 |
| Sentiment | positive |
| Relevance Score | 1 |
| People | Eric Balchunas, James Seyffart |
| Companies | Grayscale Investment, US Securities and Exchange Commission, 21 Shares, ARK Invest, Bloomberg |
| Currencies | Bitcoin, Lido Staked Ether |
| Securities | None |
