The crypto world is on the edge of a potentially historic week, with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) expected to approve a spot Bitcoin ETF by Wednesday, January 10. Analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas from Bloomberg have predicted a 90% likelihood of this pivotal decision, highlighting the progressive approach of the SEC under Chairman Gary Gensler.
Nate Geraci, President of the ETF Store and co-founder of the ETF Institute, has shared his expert insights on the unfolding situation. He emphasized the importance of fee disclosures, particularly from major players like BlackRock and Grayscale. Geraci noted Fidelity’s lead with a 0.39% fee and Invesco’s close follow-up at 0.59%.
Geraci’s second focus is on the SEC’s approval vote. Two specific technical criteria need to be met for a spot-backed Bitcoin ETF before the SEC’s vote. The SEC must authorize the 19b-4 filings submitted by the exchanges intending to list the ETFs and sanction the relevant S-1 forms, which are the registration applications from the prospective issuers. Geraci expressed confidence in the approval, stating, “I expect 19b-4 approval orders.”
Speculation is also rife about the potential launch of these ETFs as early as Thursday. Geraci highlighted the investor money expected to flow into these ETFs, with rumors of BlackRock entering with $2 billion and ARK possibly investing over $200 million.
Another critical aspect is whether Grayscale’s GBTC will convert or uplist on the same day as other ETF launches. Geraci believes so, emphasizing the significance of GBTC’s existing $27 billion in assets, which could instantly place it among the top ETFs by AUM upon launch.
Geraci is also closely watching the marketing strategies of these entities, particularly in light of the restrictive ‘33 Act advertising rules. He expects innovative approaches from BlackRock, Fidelity, Invesco, ARK, Grayscale, and others.
Scott Johnsson, a finance lawyer at Davis Polk, offered his insights on the timeline and approval probabilities. He outlined a step-by-step progression, from the final S-1/3 filings to the eventual start of trading, attaching increasing probabilities of approval at each stage. Johnsson estimates the chances of approval to be 96-98% currently, 99% at 19b-4 approval, 99.99% at notice of effectiveness, and 100% at trading.
This week could be a turning point for Bitcoin ETFs in the US, with the SEC’s decisions on the 19b-4 filings and S-1 forms being the final hurdles. The culmination of these events could mark a significant evolution in Bitcoin’s integration into mainstream financial markets. At the time of writing, BTC was trading at $44,006.
This News Article was automatically generated by Bob the Bot (AI)
| Information | Details |
|---|---|
| Geography | North America |
| Countries | 🇺🇸 |
| Sentiment | positive |
| Relevance Score | 1 |
| People | Gary Gensler, Eric Balchunas, James Seyffart, Nate Geraci, Scott Johnsson |
| Companies | VanEck, Davis Polk, TradingView.com, BlackRock, Bloomberg, Fidelity, Bitwise, ARK, ETF Institute, The ETF Store, Grayscale, Invesco, Hashdex, United States Securities and Exchange Commission |
| Currencies | Bitcoin |
| Securities | None |
